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Performance of the SCHEV 2003 Enrollment Projections

 

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Performance of the SCHEV 2003 Enrollment Projections
Demand Projections and Actual Enrollments (Total In-state students)
:SCHEV Goal :2010 In-State Enrollment:305060.2 :SCHEV Goal :2010 In-State Enrollment:305060.2 :SCHEV Goal :2009 In-State Enrollment:301406.5 :SCHEV Goal :2009 In-State Enrollment:301406.5 :SCHEV Goal :2009 In-State Enrollment:301406.5 :SCHEV Goal :2008 In-State Enrollment:297722.4 :SCHEV Goal :2008 In-State Enrollment:297722.4 :SCHEV Goal :2008 In-State Enrollment:297722.4 :SCHEV Goal :2007 In-State Enrollment:293988.9 :SCHEV Goal :2007 In-State Enrollment:293988.9 :SCHEV Goal :2007 In-State Enrollment:293988.9 :SCHEV Goal :2006 In-State Enrollment:290180.35 :SCHEV Goal :2006 In-State Enrollment:290180.35 :SCHEV Goal :2006 In-State Enrollment:290180.35 :SCHEV Goal :2005 In-State Enrollment:286266.35 :SCHEV Goal :2005 In-State Enrollment:286266.35 :SCHEV Goal :2005 In-State Enrollment:286266.35 :SCHEV Goal :2004 In-State Enrollment:282210.8 :SCHEV Goal :2004 In-State Enrollment:282210.8 :SCHEV Goal :2004 In-State Enrollment:282210.8 :SCHEV Goal :2003 In-State Enrollment:277967.15 :SCHEV Goal :2003 In-State Enrollment:277967.15 :SCHEV Goal :2003 In-State Enrollment:277967.15 :SCHEV Goal :2002 In-State Enrollment:273478.4 :SCHEV Goal :2002 In-State Enrollment:273478.4 :SCHEV Goal :2002 In-State Enrollment:273478.4 :SCHEV Goal :2001 In-State Enrollment:265981 :SCHEV Goal :2001 In-State Enrollment:265981 :SCHEV Goal :2001 In-State Enrollment:265981 :SCHEV Goal :2000 In-State Enrollment:256376.5 :SCHEV Goal :2000 In-State Enrollment:256376.5 :Actual Enrollment :2008 In-State Enrollment:328257 :Actual Enrollment :2007 In-State Enrollment:316437 :Actual Enrollment :2006 In-State Enrollment:306024 :Actual Enrollment :2005 In-State Enrollment:302891 :Actual Enrollment :2004 In-State Enrollment:296774 :Actual Enrollment :2003 In-State Enrollment:293698 :Actual Enrollment :2002 In-State Enrollment:287872 :Actual Enrollment :2001 In-State Enrollment:278461 :Actual Enrollment :2000 In-State Enrollment:267746 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:321116 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:321116 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:317270 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:317270 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:317270 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:313392 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:313392 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:313392 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:309462 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:309462 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:309462 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:305453 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:305453 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:305453 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:301333 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:301333 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:301333 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:297064 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:297064 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:297064 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:292597 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:292597 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:292597 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:287872 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:287872 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:287872 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:279980 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:279980 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:279980 :Projected Demand :2000 In-State Enrollment:269870 :Projected Demand :2000 In-State Enrollment:269870

The chart to the left demonstrates the relationship between SCHEV's projected enrollment demand for Virginia institutions and the actual enrollments. As part of SCHEV's Systemwide Plan for Higher Education in Virginia, it is the Council's number one goal to accomodate an enrollment increase of at least 38,000 (Based on the 2001 Systemwide Needs Assessment) additional students by the end of the decade. The 2003 Revised Enrollment Demand Projections through 2010 and Potential Gaps in Higher Education Services now places the demand at 51,246 additional students by the end of the decade.
In 2003, the agency's goal is to work with the Council, the institutions, the General Assembly, the Governor, and other parties to ensure that at least 95% of the overall demand by Virginia resident students is met. Starting from the base of Fall 2000 and continuing through Fall 2010, this will represent an increase of 48,684 (95% of 51,246) students.

Percent of Projected Demand Enrolled
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 101% 100% 102% 105% 0% 0%
Total Projected In-State Demand
269,870 279,980 287,872 292,597 297,064 301,333 305,453 309,462 313,392 317,270 321,116
Total Actual In-State Enrollment
267,746 278,461 287,872 293,698 296,774 302,891 306,024 316,437 328,257 0 0
Estimated Remaining Demand Differentials to 2010
51,246* 41,136* 33,244 27,418 24,342 18,225 15,092 4,679 (7,141) (7,141) (7,141)
NOTE: The differentials above are static calculations between actual enrollments and the 2003 Demand Model and thus do not represent environmental changes that have occurred (such as changes in retention rates) or increases/decreases in enrollment. Therefore, these differentials should be used with caution as they are not absolute.
Further, enrollment by the public institutions above the projected demand, simply increases the overall demand in later years...it does not reduce the demand or need in any manner.
* Difference between projection model years 10 and 1, years 10 and 2, not actuals.

Demand Projections, Institutional Targets, and Actual Enrollments (All In-state students)

:Actual Enrollment :2008 In-State Enrollment:161286 :Actual Enrollment :2007 In-State Enrollment:157939 :Actual Enrollment :2006 In-State Enrollment:154245 :Actual Enrollment :2005 In-State Enrollment:152156 :Actual Enrollment :2004 In-State Enrollment:148913 :Actual Enrollment :2003 In-State Enrollment:147957 :Actual Enrollment :2002 In-State Enrollment:145257 :Actual Enrollment :2001 In-State Enrollment:141102 :Actual Enrollment :2000 In-State Enrollment:137904 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:158837 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:158837 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:157124 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:157124 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:157124 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:155425 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:155425 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:155425 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:153737 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:153737 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:153737 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:152055 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:152055 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:152055 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:150374 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:150374 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:150374 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:148686 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:148686 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:148686 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:146984 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:146984 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:146984 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:145257 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:145257 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:145257 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:141822 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:141822 :Projected Demand :2001 In-State Enrollment:141822 :Projected Demand :2000 In-State Enrollment:138597 :Projected Demand :2000 In-State Enrollment:138597 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:151902 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:151902 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:149594 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:149594 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:149594 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:148189 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:148189 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:148189 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:146993 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:146993 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:146993 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:145577 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:145577 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:145577 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:145466 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:145466 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:145466 :Institutional Targets :2001 In-State Enrollment:141516 :Institutional Targets :2001 In-State Enrollment:141516 :Institutional Targets :2001 In-State Enrollment:141516 :Institutional Targets :2000 In-State Enrollment:121365 :Institutional Targets :2000 In-State Enrollment:121365

The chart to the left demonstrates the relationship between SCHEV's projected enrollment demand of Virginia residents for public four-year institutions, the enrollment targets of those institutions and the actual enrollments.

Demand Projections, Institutional Targets, and Actual Enrollments (In-state Undergraduate students)

:Actual Enrollment :2008 In-State Enrollment:125474 :Actual Enrollment :2007 In-State Enrollment:121872 :Actual Enrollment :2006 In-State Enrollment:118766 :Actual Enrollment :2005 In-State Enrollment:116812 :Actual Enrollment :2004 In-State Enrollment:113120 :Actual Enrollment :2003 In-State Enrollment:111778 :Actual Enrollment :2002 In-State Enrollment:110693 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:121042 :Projected Demand :2010 In-State Enrollment:121042 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:119736 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:119736 :Projected Demand :2009 In-State Enrollment:119736 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:118442 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:118442 :Projected Demand :2008 In-State Enrollment:118442 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:117155 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:117155 :Projected Demand :2007 In-State Enrollment:117155 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:115873 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:115873 :Projected Demand :2006 In-State Enrollment:115873 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:114592 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:114592 :Projected Demand :2005 In-State Enrollment:114592 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:113306 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:113306 :Projected Demand :2004 In-State Enrollment:113306 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:112009 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:112009 :Projected Demand :2003 In-State Enrollment:112009 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:110693 :Projected Demand :2002 In-State Enrollment:110693 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:114885 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:114885 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:113095 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:113095 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:113095 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:112272 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:112272 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:112272 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:111450 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:111450 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:111450 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:110625 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:110625 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:110625 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:110850 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:110850

Institutional enrollment targets, assuming no additional funding for in-state undergraduate students beyond current levels, leave a projected gap of 2,265 students in Fall 2007. By extrapolation, this gap could be as high as 6,300 by 2010. This gap represents two percent of the 2007 enrollment targets and is hidden in the overall totals by the capcity for graduate students in excess of of the forecasted demand. This gap becomes even more noteworthy when viewed in the context of the growth in in projected high school graduates likely to attend public four-year institutions as making up the bulk of this gap and also in the context of perhaps 3,000 students from the VCCS eventually seeking to transfer. With the addition of these factors, this looks to be much more of a potential problem in demand exceeding supply.

Demand Projections, Institutional Targets, and Actuals of Virginia High School Students attending Public Four-year Institutions

:Actual Enrollment :2002 In-State Enrollment:20382 :Actual Enrollment :2003 In-State Enrollment:20554 :Actual Enrollment :2004 In-State Enrollment:20303 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2002 In-State Enrollment:19909 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2002 In-State Enrollment:19909 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2003 In-State Enrollment:20374 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2003 In-State Enrollment:20374 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2003 In-State Enrollment:20374 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2004 In-State Enrollment:20651 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2004 In-State Enrollment:20651 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2004 In-State Enrollment:20651 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2005 In-State Enrollment:20976 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2005 In-State Enrollment:20976 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2005 In-State Enrollment:20976 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2006 In-State Enrollment:21861 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2006 In-State Enrollment:21861 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2006 In-State Enrollment:21861 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2007 In-State Enrollment:22610 :VA HS Grads Likely to Attend a VA Public 4 :2007 In-State Enrollment:22610 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:21179 :Institutional Targets :2002 In-State Enrollment:21179 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:21247 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:21247 :Institutional Targets :2003 In-State Enrollment:21247 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:21600 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:21600 :Institutional Targets :2004 In-State Enrollment:21600 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:21641 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:21641 :Institutional Targets :2005 In-State Enrollment:21641 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:21609 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:21609 :Institutional Targets :2006 In-State Enrollment:21609 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:21713 :Institutional Targets :2007 In-State Enrollment:21713

SCHEV's 2003 report of Revised Enrollment Projections provides estimates of the number of Virginia high school graduates likely to desire enrollment at a public four-year institution in Virginia. These estimates were developed through historical patterns of actual enrollments and overall projections of high school graduates (using multiple methods). These projections are then compared to the institutional enrollment targets of new first-time in-state freshman provided by the public four-year institutions.

Percent of Projected Demand Enrolled
(VA HS graduates likely to attend a public four-year institution)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Likely Demand 19,909 20,374 20,651 20,976 21,861 22,610
Actual 20,382 20,554 20,303
Performance 102% 101% 98%
These data are directly tied to one of SCHEV's DPB performance measures and demonstrates SCHEV's committment to meeting projected enrollment demand. The likely demand used here is the median of three separate projections and should be assumed to have upper bound and lower bounds of 3% variance. For more information, see Revised Enrollment Demand Projections through 2010 and Potential Gaps in Higher Education Services elsewhere on this website.