Performance of the SCHEV 2005 Enrollment Projections

As an overview, the following has occured:

1. Overall, in-state enrollment at public institutions accounted for 99% of projected demand (details).
They enrolled 2,220 more in-state students than the demand projections indicated.
Graduate student enrollments were 1,491 below the demand projections and 766 students below institutional targets (details). This was in large part due to the fact that they were 536 new graduate students below their targets (details).
First professional enrollments were 94 students above the demand projections, and they were 24 students below institutional targets (details).
The public two-years enrolled 3,735 students fewer than the demand projection indicated(details). By and large, it appears that demand model may have over-predicted enrollments. However, this could also be a sign of strengthening economy, which historically has reduced both community college and graduate level enrollments.
2. Despite the fact that the institutional targets for Fall 2005 were slightly higher than actual enrollment, the public four-year institutions and Richard Bland College met 100.5% of total projected in-state demand (details).
3. At the undergraduate level in four-year institutions and Richard Bland College, actual enrollments slightly exceeded institutional targets by 257 students, and exceeded projected demand by 2,220 students (details).

What explains the some of differences between targets, actuals, and demand?

4. While enrollments of new transfers came in 466 below the total targets (details), enrollment of new freshmen came in 733 students above institutional targets (details) and there appears to have been an increase in student retention as the net increase in in-state undergraduate enrollment was 1,675 students (details). In Fall 2005, the public institutions enrolled 99% of the total projected in-state demand for all students. This represents a difference of 2,911 students. The breakdowns by level follow: